Three days of fun and games

Last three days the major currencies had a BIG ride. Euro lost heavily against the USD while CHF gained similar amount. Euro has fallen below the last daily bottom of Dec.22, 2009, while CHF has not been able to break above the high of that day.

GBP gave a valiant try to hold on but finally gave up and had a major slide too. It still has steam to run may be to 1.6050. Let us see if it meets that target. JPY is trying to assert its daily uptrend and almost hit 92.00 against the USD. Question is will it exhaust itself here and revert or just undergo a correction to assert the uptrend. Time will tell. But it certainly is the wrong time to buy USD/JPY at tis instance.

Indian stock barometer nifty also finally gave up after exhaustion of many days and had a large correction today.

There have  been some major moves over last three days, so it may be time to stand aside as these moves can get exhausted for some time to come.

Nifty undergoing a correction?

Nifty has been listless for last few days. While every one is talking about its way to be up, it is showing disinclination to do so. There is a good chance that it will undergo a correction by today / tomorrow before it decides the next course of action.

Let us see how it goes, as anticipation and actual happening are not always together.

Start of a vacation

Finally some forex pairs had their pre-holiday swings over last two days.

USD/CHF did a 150 pips fall, after showing some clear signs of topping in the 4 hourly chart.  Even the vacation volumes - which can spoil intra-day signals with lot of noise, did not deter the trends established in the 4 hourly time frames. All the technical criteria were met like clock work. Euro tried to ape CHF but was not as successful.

USD/JPY and GBP/USD did a smaller tango of their own with clear signals.

I was always afraid of low volume noise but some how at little longer time frames it does not matter.  Good to see that.


Meanwhile Indian stocks did a rocket dance and just whooshed up in the blink of an eye lid.  Pressing an enter key took more time than it took to go up 150 points, so naturally the scared yours truly did not dare to enter.

Now of course is the time to relax and I plan to stay away from the computer screens for at least a week.

Hope the next year leads to lot of action in the markets.

A merry christmas and a very happy new year to everyone.

Trends are for following

All currency pairs are sticking to their daily trends. Euro has been steadily losing against the USD. GBP made one valiant correction yesterday but made all the gains to give up faster than you can say 'wow'.

Since morning it is a  listless market, except for the biigg move by GBP. Am waiting on the sidelines but don't think any great moves will happen today.

But I have been proven wrong oftener than I care to like!

Nifty is near its daily averages and ought to make an attempt higher by today or tomorrow. Worth watching how it works out.

If wishes were horses

Finally the tiredness of nifty took its toll and nifty started a correction. Thankfully we could take the call to sell at the right price point. This could be a correction that can go down to 4900's before stalling.

Did this happen because every expert was talking about nifty making newer highs? Again I was reminded not to listen to analysts and to form one's own conclusion.

These changes in trends are heart wrenching, as before it sets in , it invalidates lot of good signals with the trend. Only after making a few losing transactions one realizes the tiredness of the trend etc. Wish it could be noticed without burning some money!

But of course that way I wish so many things that could happen, but do not.

Nifty

Nifty is still recovering from a weekend hangover, and I thought it will come back with some renewed vigor after a nice break!
It gives good signals of wanting to move up and then fails a genuine signal. May be it is telling that it is tired; will be interesting to see what it does over next couple of days.

Bane of Emotions - II

Carrying on the conversation about nifty, since last two days, nifty has become quite rudderless. Thankfully I am emotionally calm and more importantly sitting on the fence. Nice position to take a world view (!) or if you are truthful saying ' not sure - what is happening'.
Any ways Monday may decide the fate of the markets for the short terms atleast.
Till then am going to enjoy a nice and lazy week end.

Bane of emotions

I have been trading for a long time now. Today was a day when emotions took over sound logic. We had a few nifty futures positions built yesterday. The positions were doing fine, they still have not given a signal to jump the ship but i did. The way euro and other currencies were going down and the so-called risk aversion that all media are hyping about cracked my resolve and there I am sitting now with no position! I am quite sure tomorrow it will jump up, now that it knows I am not there for the fanciful trip. If I get a chance to board it is gonna be at a higher price making me jittery. Hope I do not repeat this again.