Fickle Markets

Yesterday many prople were writing off Euro and many sites and alalysts were talking of selling the Euro. I have become much wiser in the last couple of years so I kept away from joing the gang and waited patiently for Euro to do contrary to what everyone thought. And lo and behold it is doing opposite of what people thought. Not a new thing but yesterday was a good repeat of what markets always do, make the majority wrong.

It is such a long time and titanic shifts in the markets meanwhile

I guess it is about 3 months since I wrote anything here. Been very busy with some assignments I was doing. Meanwhile the market was certainly not sleeping. In fact it was hyperactive. Dow saw its biggest ever intra day fall, thanks to algos or what the SEC also does not know. USD/JPY went thru similar tantrums. It was as if action of many many days were packed (like high gravity black hole) in a 10 minute window of time. And people talk of Average true range, Value at risk etc. etc.!!  Any of those models would be unprepared for that fall. But if you are blindly following trends then it was not a surprise; the downward movement, I mean not the intensity. After all it was not that the market was going up and suddenly, bingo, it came down. Few days before it had been showing exhaustion of the up move. So wise guys had at least not been on the long side. The extra smart guys of course may have been short too, and made pots of gold.
As of now i feel we are still in a downtrend. The Dow is near it daily averages, good time to wait for a shorting opportunity? Same is the case with GBP, USD/JPY etc. Only time will tell if it happens.
I am lucky to have seen such a big fall and not getting burnt in it.

Last week has been one of big moves

After the big moves from last week one needs to wait patiently now, to try a trade in a sizeable correction if any that may happen now. The trends have got fairly firmly established against risk. We do not know how long this mentality will prevail. But technically a correction may be in offing.

New week/month beginning

Here starts the new week and month of February. Last week many pairs maintained and accelerated thier trends against the USD. Euro and GBP losing heavily while CHF gained.

This general trends may undergo a correction some time in the near future. Hopefully may give a chance to enter the market, do not know when though I do know it will.

USD/JPY seems to be consolidating to start its downtrend again. Again when that may happen is any body's guess.

Three days of fun and games

Last three days the major currencies had a BIG ride. Euro lost heavily against the USD while CHF gained similar amount. Euro has fallen below the last daily bottom of Dec.22, 2009, while CHF has not been able to break above the high of that day.

GBP gave a valiant try to hold on but finally gave up and had a major slide too. It still has steam to run may be to 1.6050. Let us see if it meets that target. JPY is trying to assert its daily uptrend and almost hit 92.00 against the USD. Question is will it exhaust itself here and revert or just undergo a correction to assert the uptrend. Time will tell. But it certainly is the wrong time to buy USD/JPY at tis instance.

Indian stock barometer nifty also finally gave up after exhaustion of many days and had a large correction today.

There have  been some major moves over last three days, so it may be time to stand aside as these moves can get exhausted for some time to come.

Roller Coaster

Till Friday last I was in full control of my faculties, making reasonable success of riding the forex bull. Some time yesterday and early parts of today lost sight of the objectives and started digging up signals were they did not exist and paid for it. Just now recovered from that oversight to make good my losses by listening to 'what the market is telling' rather than what I - wanted to hear - my usual failing.

I use to remind myself of not making the same mistake again, but stopped doing that long back. Come on to err is human, so I do not care as long as I can bring my self back and go two steps ahead for that one errant step back.

USD/JPY : the daily trend is still up but not sure when the correction will get over.
USD/CHF: daily trend is up but do not know entry levels now. opposite for EURO naturally.
GBP/USD: daily trend is up, but do not know entry level.

In short it would be best to stay away for a day or so till some clarity emerges. At least next two days I shall not give in to my usual failings!

Day 5 & 6 of 2010

Yesterday GBP, EUR and CHF gave some nice signals. Basically they finished their correction against the daily trend and latched on the trend again.

There were some pretty clear signals that helped identifying it. Today since Europe came in the markets have whipsawed a bit. The picture is little unclear though the daily trends are quite intact. Time will tell what course the pairs want to take.

USD/JPY may correct to 91.50 level before it can start its upward journey. Yesterday was the first time in about two weeks, that the pair had a meaningful correction. May take a day more to work itself out.

EUR and CHF ……. cont……..

What a nice ride it was. The new year trading opened with a bang for  EUR.

From a sure shot down pattern, expected to go to 1.4200, it took no time to turn and reach   1.4400+, all in the day. Nice to have got out of the short position at decent profits before the turn came.

I got reminded of the saying that in the markets 'anything can happen',  and booking profits is a good habit to acquire.

So is this the taste of volatility to be encountered this year ?

EUR and CHF

Finally I could not resist dipping in the markets in the low volume period. Am short EUR/USD and long USD/CHF. Though the low volumes are frightening, they are still following the daily trends. Already my positions are on the right side of the market.

I feel the move may be big, EUR could go down to 1.4100 before correcting. Early next week these targets may be achieved.

GBP is trying to go up in the intra day charts. It is hitting the daily averages now and may correct in the next week. May take three - four days to start a correction.

USD/JPY of course has been the star of the week. Not even a semi decent correction on its way up yet. That is the time to stay on the sidelines. It is very tempting to board a fast moving train, thinking the destination will come faster. But it may need a correction before moving further, if any.

Start of a vacation

Finally some forex pairs had their pre-holiday swings over last two days.

USD/CHF did a 150 pips fall, after showing some clear signs of topping in the 4 hourly chart.  Even the vacation volumes - which can spoil intra-day signals with lot of noise, did not deter the trends established in the 4 hourly time frames. All the technical criteria were met like clock work. Euro tried to ape CHF but was not as successful.

USD/JPY and GBP/USD did a smaller tango of their own with clear signals.

I was always afraid of low volume noise but some how at little longer time frames it does not matter.  Good to see that.


Meanwhile Indian stocks did a rocket dance and just whooshed up in the blink of an eye lid.  Pressing an enter key took more time than it took to go up 150 points, so naturally the scared yours truly did not dare to enter.

Now of course is the time to relax and I plan to stay away from the computer screens for at least a week.

Hope the next year leads to lot of action in the markets.

A merry christmas and a very happy new year to everyone.

Nothing is happening

With everyone in holiday mood the markets are going sideways. Nothing is happening. But I have seen before that this normally is the calm before the storm. Something is going to give soon, even if not to change the daily trends certainly big enough for a correction to the daily averages, and this may be the time when USD/CHF may make a violent move to do so.
Waiting and watching, patience may pay.

Trends are for following

All currency pairs are sticking to their daily trends. Euro has been steadily losing against the USD. GBP made one valiant correction yesterday but made all the gains to give up faster than you can say 'wow'.

Since morning it is a  listless market, except for the biigg move by GBP. Am waiting on the sidelines but don't think any great moves will happen today.

But I have been proven wrong oftener than I care to like!

Nifty is near its daily averages and ought to make an attempt higher by today or tomorrow. Worth watching how it works out.

GBP correction

Not bad, finally my guess work was listened to by the pair. A violent correction is happening. Happy that I am there with large position.

Some times by thinking about a thing one can make it happen(?). I am taking 'The Alchemist' too much to heart?

Anyway money is money whether thru' stock/forex market or thru' Alchemy!

Euro/USD and USD/CHF - II

Life is funny, I kept tracking EURO and CHF for last two days and they hardly moved. I made money in a pair that had not really hit my conscious- USD/JPY. Suddenly inspiration came while watching EURO with bleary eyes, that USD/JPY was not so bad a set up!
I do not mind, what worked as long as something worked so I can have a relaxed and happy weekend. This will be my last post for the week, so have a nice weekend.

Euro/USD and USD/CHF

Euro has been trying to change its daily trend for some time now. It has gone down a long way and I am expecting a correction over next few days even if for going down in the overall state of the trend. I am buying Euro, believing it will go up to at least 1.4900 over a couple of days. Let us see how this works out, as only time tells the truth, everything else is guess work!

CHF of course is mirror reflection of EURO most of the time

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