Wednesday, May 12, 2010

It is such a long time and titanic shifts in the markets meanwhile

I guess it is about 3 months since I wrote anything here. Been very busy with some assignments I was doing. Meanwhile the market was certainly not sleeping. In fact it was hyperactive. Dow saw its biggest ever intra day fall, thanks to algos or what the SEC also does not know. USD/JPY went thru similar tantrums. It was as if action of many many days were packed (like high gravity black hole) in a 10 minute window of time. And people talk of Average true range, Value at risk etc. etc.!!  Any of those models would be unprepared for that fall. But if you are blindly following trends then it was not a surprise; the downward movement, I mean not the intensity. After all it was not that the market was going up and suddenly, bingo, it came down. Few days before it had been showing exhaustion of the up move. So wise guys had at least not been on the long side. The extra smart guys of course may have been short too, and made pots of gold.
As of now i feel we are still in a downtrend. The Dow is near it daily averages, good time to wait for a shorting opportunity? Same is the case with GBP, USD/JPY etc. Only time will tell if it happens.
I am lucky to have seen such a big fall and not getting burnt in it.